Oil Cost Production Barrel Breakdown

미국세일기업들 배럴당 생산비용은 총 $23.35 로 사우디($8.98) 이란 ($9.08) 아리크($10.57) 러시아($19.21)보다는 훨씬비용이 많이 들지만 영국, 브라질 그리고 베네주엘라 보다는 저렴한 가격에 생산하고 있습니다.  더자세한 내용은 여기 월스트리티저널 기사에 있습니다.
The cost of producing a barrel by the U.S. Oil companies is $23.35 per barrel which is higher than Saudi, Iran, Iraq and Russia, but lower than U.K., Brazil, Nigeria and Venezuela. More detail information can be found in the following WSJ’s article.
Cost breakdown for U.S. shale
Gross taxes $6.42 27.5%
Capital spending $7.56 32.4%
Production costs $5.85 25.1%
Admin/transport $3.52 15.1%
Total $23.35

Source: http://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/

 

 

Historical Beef Prices as of December 2015

The following table shows the statistical analysis of real beef prices from 1980 to 2015. The average real price of historical beef prices is $184.

Analysis Variable : Real Price Beef

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

183.6582437

58.4350040

101.7579069

416.2598337


The following table shows the statistical analysis for nominal historical beef prices from 1980 to 2015. The average of nominal historical prices is $119.

Analysis Variable : value

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

119.0349104

35.7509250

74.2619019

272.2954545



Analysis Variable : value

decade

N Obs

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

1980

120

109.0947196

9.8862322

87.4400024

136.3599854

109.9499931

120

1990

120

98.6066966

17.3634471

74.2619019

127.9404831

98.1180916

120

2000

120

107.6505498

14.5966186

78.2500000

135.5000000

112.5375000

120

2010

72

188.6228524

27.0278194

133.8750000

272.2954545

186.3181818

72





Related Reading articles: https://www.quandl.com/data/XNAS/COW-Barclays-Bank-PLC-COW-Adjusted-Stock-Prices

http://etfdb.com/etf/COW/#charts

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/meat-prices-etfs-beef-prices-sheep/6/7/2011/id/35002?refresh=1

Historical Soybeans Analysis from 1980 to 12/2015

The soybeans prices usually rise during Spring and decline in Autumn. Here is the Exchange Trade Fund for Soybean: http://etfdb.com/etf/SOYB/

The current price as of 12/2015 of soybean is below the historical average real price of soybeans ($421).

Real Price of Soybeans

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

421.4321185

134.7168702

214.0949562

931.5834660

The following chart shows the real prices (inflation adjusted) from 1980 to 12/2015. The real prices are adjusted by CPI as of 1/2016 .


The following table and chart show the nominal prices of soybeans from 1980 to 12/2015. the historical average nominal price of soybeans during this period is $278.

Analysis Variable : value

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

278.5158169

104.6457393

158.3122634

622.9135498



Analysis Variable : value

decade

N Obs

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

1980

120

237.9275458

41.6888582

177.0074879

344.3687911

227.4088025

120

1990

120

227.7615390

33.6552799

158.3122634

319.8399216

219.6459206

120

2000

120

264.0350974

97.2455379

158.6108358

554.1492765

217.6208264

120

2010

72

454.8879311

82.3191971

319.0822908

622.9135498

476.3821799

72






 

pctchng_Soybeans

pctchng_Soybeans

Average

Variance

month

0.94

19.15

1
2

0.17

13.65

3

1.80

22.82

4

1.51

16.55

5

1.71

15.15

6

0.67

41.35

7

-0.37

68.34

8

-2.98

62.89

9

-1.19

39.11

10

-1.91

43.70

11

2.00

19.12

12

0.46

13.64

Total

0.23

32.81

Commodities Factor Analysis

9 Variables: Iron Wheat Coffee Soybeans Beef Cotton Corn Copper Crude
Simple Statistics
Variable

N

Mean

Std Dev

Sum

Minimum

Maximum

Iron

432

35.78048

44.08919

15457

10.51000

187.18000

Wheat

432

166.35586

55.41891

71866

88.55224

403.81290

Coffee

432

86.44818

35.18481

37346

21.26174

182.95285

Soybeans

432

278.51582

104.64574

120319

158.31226

622.91355

Beef

432

119.03491

35.75092

51423

74.26190

272.29545

Cotton

432

73.60856

22.65506

31799

37.03000

229.66739

Corn

432

136.72270

57.54684

59064

65.35123

332.94730

Copper

432

3442

2387

1487021

1272

9881

Crude

432

41.13443

28.24933

17770

11.31000

133.93000

Pearson Correlation Coefficients, N = 432
Prob > |r| under H0: Rho=0

Iron

Wheat

Coffee

Soybeans

Beef

Cotton

Corn

Copper

Crude

Iron

1.00000

0.70718
<.0001

0.17291
0.0003

0.83702
<.0001

0.75269
<.0001

0.57005
<.0001

0.84258
<.0001

0.86057
<.0001

0.83769
<.0001

Wheat

0.70718
<.0001

1.00000

0.35826
<.0001

0.88131
<.0001

0.61609
<.0001

0.54400
<.0001

0.88888
<.0001

0.79636
<.0001

0.79189
<.0001

Coffee

0.17291
0.0003

0.35826
<.0001

1.00000

0.28492
<.0001

0.19428
<.0001

0.40259
<.0001

0.30844
<.0001

0.14843
0.0020

0.16154
0.0008

Soybeans

0.83702
<.0001

0.88131
<.0001

0.28492
<.0001

1.00000

0.72612
<.0001

0.54083
<.0001

0.93226
<.0001

0.81561
<.0001

0.83725
<.0001

Beef

0.75269
<.0001

0.61609
<.0001

0.19428
<.0001

0.72612
<.0001

1.00000

0.40908
<.0001

0.68439
<.0001

0.72983
<.0001

0.71183
<.0001

Cotton

0.57005
<.0001

0.54400
<.0001

0.40259
<.0001

0.54083
<.0001

0.40908
<.0001

1.00000

0.59708
<.0001

0.45676
<.0001

0.39767
<.0001

Corn

0.84258
<.0001

0.88888
<.0001

0.30844
<.0001

0.93226
<.0001

0.68439
<.0001

0.59708
<.0001

1.00000

0.81103
<.0001

0.81076
<.0001

Copper

0.86057
<.0001

0.79636
<.0001

0.14843
0.0020

0.81561
<.0001

0.72983
<.0001

0.45676
<.0001

0.81103
<.0001

1.00000

0.91190
<.0001

Crude

0.83769
<.0001

0.79189
<.0001

0.16154
0.0008

0.83725
<.0001

0.71183
<.0001

0.39767
<.0001

0.81076
<.0001

0.91190
<.0001

1.00000

The following chart shows the correction between commodities: All commodities are highly correlated except Coffee and Cotton.

The prices of coffee and cotton do not move with other commodities.

Correlation Matrix

Iron

Wheat

Coffee

Soybeans

Beef

Cotton

Corn

Copper

Crude

Iron

1.0000

0.7072

0.1729

0.8370

0.7527

0.5700

0.8426

0.8606

0.8377

Wheat

0.7072

1.0000

0.3583

0.8813

0.6161

0.5440

0.8889

0.7964

0.7919

Coffee

0.1729

0.3583

1.0000

0.2849

0.1943

0.4026

0.3084

0.1484

0.1615

Soybeans

0.8370

0.8813

0.2849

1.0000

0.7261

0.5408

0.9323

0.8156

0.8372

Beef

0.7527

0.6161

0.1943

0.7261

1.0000

0.4091

0.6844

0.7298

0.7118

Cotton

0.5700

0.5440

0.4026

0.5408

0.4091

1.0000

0.5971

0.4568

0.3977

Corn

0.8426

0.8889

0.3084

0.9323

0.6844

0.5971

1.0000

0.8110

0.8108

Copper

0.8606

0.7964

0.1484

0.8156

0.7298

0.4568

0.8110

1.0000

0.9119

Crude

0.8377

0.7919

0.1615

0.8372

0.7118

0.3977

0.8108

0.9119

1.0000

The following chart shows that two principal components are only matter where eigenvalue is greater than 1.

Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix
Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative
1 6.24488213 5.12506410 0.6939 0.6939
2 1.11981804 0.56744747 0.1244 0.8183
3 0.55237056 0.11922482 0.0614 0.8797
4 0.43314574 0.17178834 0.0481 0.9278
5 0.26135741 0.08079623 0.0290 0.9568
6 0.18056118 0.08877333 0.0201 0.9769
7 0.09178785 0.03246670 0.0102 0.9871
8 0.05932114 0.00256520 0.0066 0.9937
9 0.05675595 0.0063 1.0000

Only two factors will be retained by the mineigen criterion.

The following chart shows that the first factor highly effects on all commodities except coffee and cotton and the second factor effects positively on coffee and cotton while negatively effects on iron, soybeans, beef, copper and crude.

Factor Pattern

Factor1

Factor2

Iron

0.91379

-0.14311

Wheat

0.90047

0.09010

Coffee

0.33077

0.85318

Soybeans

0.94623

-0.02316

Beef

0.80294

-0.15500

Cotton

0.63410

0.47904

Corn

0.94521

0.03455

Copper

0.91365

-0.22659

Crude

0.90515

-0.23819

The following chart shows that two factors explain 83% of variance.

 

The following chart shows that Iron and Copper and rude move together, Beef and soybeans move together, wheat and corn move together.

Source: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=287369&category_id=

https://sites.google.com/site/econometricsacademy/econometrics-models/principal-component-analysis?pageId=103335352115747405657

Sugar Prices from 1986 to Jan-2016

The following chart displays the historical sugar prices from 1986 to January 2016.



Analysis Variable : Value Value

decade

N Obs

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

1980

47

9.0395745

3.0067800

4.6800000

15.0200000

8.4300000

47

1990

120

10.4503333

2.3426674

5.3800000

15.3100000

10.6550000

120

2000

120

10.2435000

4.1304877

5.1100000

24.9000000

9.3400000

120

2010

73

19.3590411

4.6936704

10.6700000

29.7400000

18.2400000

73





  Here are three Sugar ETFs you can invest:

http://commodityhq.com/investing-ideas/which-sugar-etf-is-right-for-you-sgg-vs-sgar-vs-cane/

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/top-3-sugar-etfs.asp

http://etfdb.com/type/commodity/softs/sugar/

Iron Ore Price (US Dollars per Dry Metric Ton)

철광석 가격이 올해들어와서 상승했습니다. 그래서 오스트레일라 달러 가 강세를 보여주고 있네요. 철광석  관련에 투자할 ETFs 가 여기있습니다.

http://www.benzinga.com/markets/company-news/163586/the-best-etf-for-rising-iron-ore-prices



Analysis Variable : Value Value

decade

N Obs

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

1980

48

11.2100000

0.5666925

10.5100000

12.0300000

11.1500000

48

1990

120

13.1040000

1.0655163

11.4500000

15.0300000

13.0050000

120

2000

120

30.8079167

22.6933870

12.4500000

105.2500000

22.2500000

120

2010

73

120.6390411

40.3574734

39.6000000

187.1800000

128.8700000

73





 

pctchng_Iron_Price

pctchng_Iron_Price

Average

Variance

month

.

.

.
1

8.53

345.71

2

0.01

4.19

3

-1.29

21.02

4

0.50

25.37

5

-0.49

23.40

6

-0.44

15.88

7

-0.06

30.79

8

1.00

29.18

9

-1.33

15.58

10

0.07

19.98

11

-0.00

22.11

12

0.44

19.69

Total

0.58

52.46