The following chart displays the historical oil prices and the prices of oil declined by 10% recently.
The late drop in the oil price was little too much and it is believed to rebound soon.
However, the forecasting model projects that the oil prices will increase gradually for next 12 month.
The following chart displays the historical oil import by U.S. and the import has been increasing again.
The following chart shows the oil export by U.S. and it has been significantly increasing lately.
The following chart displays the net export (Export -Import) of petroleum for U.S. the next export was decreasing, but it begins to increase again due to improvement in U.S. economy.
The following R codes produces the charts above:
oil=Quandl(“OPEC/ORB”, api_key=”ucUWoKV_gnNZAgY8AQvL”, type=’xts’)
# Quantmod for oil
chartSeries(oil, subset=’last 12 months’)
fit <- arima(oil_price, order=c(2, 0, 1))
# predictive accuracy
# predict next 5 observations