Investors bet on Volatility

두려움에 투자하는 방법입니다.  VXX ETF, TVIX and UVXY ETF 투자하는것입니다. 주식시장이 하락하면 VIX Index 가 상승하는데 일반인이 직접투자할수있는 방법은 없습니다. 그래서 위에 있는  ETFs 에 투자하시면 됩니다. 하지만 이것은 위험도가 따릅니다. 이유는 Future Contract 에 투자하기때문에 한달이상 보유하면 손실을 입을수가 있습니다. 대제 주식시장이 폭락할때 주식을 팔지않고 헤지하는 방법으로 사용합니다.

MI-CO851_ABREAS_16U_20160327160906

Related Article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/fear-amid-the-market-rally-investors-raise-bets-on-volatility-1459103317

GDP Growth Rates (as of December 2015) vs Unemployment Rates vs. Inflation Rates as of March 2016

경제 성장률, 실업률 그리고 물가상승률을 비교해보았습니다. 현재 전세계 경제가 한눈에 보일것입니다. 경제가 성장하면 물가는 상승하고 실업률은 하락하게됩니다. 현재 선진국들은 낮은 성장 저물가 그리고 높은 실업률을 겪고있습니다.

확실히 러시아와 브라질이 경제가 안좋은데도 불구하고 물가상승률이 높아지고 있습니다. 대개 경제가 나빠지면 물가는 하락합니다. 특히 일본과 이탈리아가 저성장과 저물가입니다.

Brazil and Russia are experiencing negative GDP growth rates with high inflation and this is very unusual. The high inflation usually occurs when the economy grows high.


경제가 성장하면 실업률은 하락합니다. 하지만 스페인의 경제가 성장하지만 아직도 높은 실업률은 높습니다. 유럽은 현재 낮은 경제성장률과 높은실업률을 겪고있습니다.

If the economy grows high, then the unemployment usually falls. They usually move opposite direction.

Source: Trandingeconomics

Unemployment rates for G-20 countries as of March 2016

The status of unemployment rates for six countries becomes better from the previous period while the status of unemployment rates for seven countries becomes worse off.

The following pie chart shows the status changes from the previous period.

 


Obs Country

Last

Previous

Changes

Type Status

Lastrank

Previousrank

Changesrank

1 United States

4.9

4.9

0.00

Low No Change

13

13

8

2 Euro Area

10.3

10.4

-0.10

High Better

3

3

13

3 China

4.05

4.05

0.00

Low No Change

17

15

8

4 Japan

3.2

3.3

-0.10

Low Better

18

18

13

5 Germany

6.2

4.3

1.90

Medium Worse

8

14

1

6 United Kingdom

5.1

5.1

0.00

Medium No Change

12

12

8

7 France

10.3

10.4

-0.10

High Better

3

3

13

8 Brazil

8.2

7.6

0.60

Medium Worse

5

5

2

9 Italy

11.5

11.4

0.10

High Worse

2

2

6

10 India

4.9

5.2

-0.30

Low Better

13

11

18

11 Russia

5.8

5.8

0.00

Medium No Change

10

10

8

12 Canada

7.3

7.2

0.10

Medium Worse

6

6

6

13 Australia

5.8

6

-0.20

Medium Better

10

8

16

14 South Korea

4.1

3.5

0.60

Low Worse

16

17

2

15 Spain

20.9

21.18

-0.28

High Better

1

1

17

16 Mexico

4.24

3.96

0.28

Low Worse

15

16

4

17 Indonesia

6.18

5.94

0.24

Medium Worse

9

9

5

18 Netherlands

6.5

6.5

0.00

Medium No Change

7

7

8

Analysis Variable :Unemployment Rates

Mean

Minimum

Maximum

Median

Range

7.1927778

3.2000000

20.9000000

5.9900000

17.7000000


The average change of unemployment rates increased by 0.15%  which implies the labor market for G-20 countries got worse off. The unemployment rates of German and Korea increased from the previous period while the unemployment rates for Spain and India fell.

Analysis Variable : Unemployment Changes

Mean

Minimum

Maximum

Median

Range

0.1522222

-0.3000000

1.9000000

0

2.2000000




Inflation rates for G-20 as of March 2016

The following table displays the inflation rates for G-20 countries as of March 2016. The average inflation rate for these countries is 2.1%, and the median inflation is 1.15%. Many European countries are experiencing deflation now. Many advanced countries are experiencing the falling of prices.

Obs

Country

Last

Previous

Changes

Type

Lastrank

Previousrank

Changesrank

1 United States

1

1.4

-0.40

Low

10

9

10

2 Euro Area

-0.2

0.3

-0.50

Deflation

15

13

12

3 China

2.3

1.8

0.50

Mild

6

7

2

4 Japan

0

0.2

-0.20

Low

13

16

8

5 Germany

0

0.5

-0.50

Low

13

12

12

6 United Kingdom

0.3

0.3

0.00

Low

12

13

6

7 France

-0.2

0.2

-0.40

Deflation

15

16

11

8 Brazil

10.36

10.71

-0.35

Hyper

1

1

9

9 Italy

-0.3

0.3

-0.60

Deflation

17

13

16

10 India

5.18

5.69

-0.51

High

3

3

15

11 Russia

8.1

9.8

-1.70

High

2

2

18

12 Canada

1.4

2

-0.60

Low

8

6

17

13 Australia

1.7

1.5

0.20

Low

7

8

5

14 South Korea

1.3

0.8

0.50

Low

9

10

1

15 Spain

-0.8

-0.3

-0.50

Deflation

18

18

12

16 Mexico

2.87

2.61

0.26

Mild

5

5

4

17 Indonesia

4.42

4.14

0.28

Mild

4

4

3

18 Netherlands

0.6

0.6

0.00

Low

11

11

6

Analysis Variable : Last Last

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

Range

2.1127778

3.0801677

-0.8000000

10.3600000

1.1500000

18

11.1600000



12 countries are either in low inflation or deflation while three countries are experiencing high inflation.


Note

The prices of Spain and Italy entered the negative territory, and the prices for Brazil and India fell from the previous month.

The prices for South Korea and China rose from the previous month.

Source : Tradingeconomics

Foreign Exchanges Reserves as of February 2016

The foreign reserves of China and Korea decreased from previous period by $28,572 million and $1,530 million respectively. However, the foreign reserves of German, Japan and France increased from the previous period.

Obs Country

Current

Previous

Highest

Difference

Percent

Reference
1 United States

117188

117581

153075

-393

( 0.3%)

USD Million
2 Euro Area

332917

333872

340247

-955

( 0.3%)

USD Million
3 China

3202321

3230893

3993213

-28572

( 0.7%)

USD Million
4 Japan

1254100

1248107

1306668

5993

0.5%

USD Million
5 Germany

177917

164656

203337

13261

6.5%

EUR Million
6 United Kingdom

134342.8

135181

135181

-838.2

( 0.6%)

USD Million
7 France

160.01

151

187

9.01

4.8%

EUR Billion
8 Brazil

359368

357507

379156

1861

0.5%

USD Million
9 Italy

130926.5

123132

147910

7794.5

5.3%

EUR Million
10 India

353410

350860

383643

2550

0.7%

USD Million
11 Russia

380544

371559

596566

8985

1.5%

USD Million
12 Canada

81290

81182

81290

108

0.1%

USD Million
13 Australia

61222

61585

84610

-363

( 0.4%)

AUD Million
14 South Korea

365760

367290

374749

-1530

( 0.4%)

USD Million
15 Spain

51547.84

50225

64355

1322.84

2.1%

EUR Million
16 Mexico

176321

177597

199161

-1276

( 0.6%)

USD Million
17 Indonesia

104500

102100

124638

2400

1.9%

USD Million
18 Netherlands

37573

36127

44319

1446

3.3%

EUR Million

Note: U.S. Mexico and Euro area are as of January 2016 and India is as of March 2016





Source: Trandingeconomics

Historical Beef Prices as of December 2015

The following table shows the statistical analysis of real beef prices from 1980 to 2015. The average real price of historical beef prices is $184.

Analysis Variable : Real Price Beef

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

183.6582437

58.4350040

101.7579069

416.2598337


The following table shows the statistical analysis for nominal historical beef prices from 1980 to 2015. The average of nominal historical prices is $119.

Analysis Variable : value

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

119.0349104

35.7509250

74.2619019

272.2954545



Analysis Variable : value

decade

N Obs

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

1980

120

109.0947196

9.8862322

87.4400024

136.3599854

109.9499931

120

1990

120

98.6066966

17.3634471

74.2619019

127.9404831

98.1180916

120

2000

120

107.6505498

14.5966186

78.2500000

135.5000000

112.5375000

120

2010

72

188.6228524

27.0278194

133.8750000

272.2954545

186.3181818

72





Related Reading articles: https://www.quandl.com/data/XNAS/COW-Barclays-Bank-PLC-COW-Adjusted-Stock-Prices

http://etfdb.com/etf/COW/#charts

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/meat-prices-etfs-beef-prices-sheep/6/7/2011/id/35002?refresh=1

Annual GDP Growth Rates for G-20 countries as of December 2015

전세계경제 속도는 는 작년 4분기 에 낮아지고 있었습니다. 3분기 전세계경제 성장률은 2% 였었습니다. 하지만 4분기 평균경제 성장률은 1.9% 으로 0.1% 정도 낮아졌습니다. 한국은 년평균 3% 의 경제성장률을 보였는데 이숫자는 3분기 대비 0.3% 상승한 숫자이고 또한 전세계에서 5위의 경제성장률을 보였습니다.  특히 선진국의 경제 성장률이 낮았습니다.

The world economy slowed down during the fourth quarter of 2015. The average annual growth rate of GDP for G-20 countries dropped to 1.9% in fourth quarter from 2.0% in the third quarter.

Table: Annual GDP growth rates for G-20 countries in the 4th quarter in 2015.

Obs

Country

Annual GDP Growth Rate

Difference from Previous quarter

Annual GDP Growth Rate rank

Difference rank

1

United States

1.9

-0.2

9

13

2

Euro Area

1.6

0

11

9

3

China

6.8

-0.1

2

11

4

Japan

0.7

-1

15

17

5

Germany

2.1

0.4

8

1

6

United Kingdom

1.9

-0.2

9

13

7

France

1.4

0.3

13

3

8

Brazil

-5.9

-1.4

18

18

9

Italy

1

0.2

14

7

10

India

7.3

-0.1

1

11

11

Russia

-3.8

0.3

17

3

12

Canada

0.5

-0.6

16

16

13

Australia

3

0.3

5

3

14

South Korea

3

0.3

5

3

15

Spain

3.5

0.1

4

8

16

Mexico

2.5

-0.1

7

10

17

Indonesia

5.04

0.31

3

2

18

Netherlands

1.6

-0.3

11

15

The following chart shows the annual GDP growth rates for G-20 countries in fourth quarter of 2015. Korea was ranked at 5th.


The following chart displays the annual GDP growth rates difference from the previous quarter (3rd quarter 2015). For example, US growth rate declined from 2.1% to 1.9%. Korea’s growth rate increased from 2.7% to 3.0. The average is -0.1% which implies that the world economy was slowing down from third quarter to fourth quarter in 2015.


The average annual growth rates of G-20 countries is 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and average difference from the previous quarter is -0.1%.

Source: Trandingeconomics

Historical Coffee Prices Analysis as 12-2015

Analysis Variable : Real Price Coffee

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

145.8234690

96.3982931

28.5054556

507.2815647

The demand curve for coffee is inelastic so that price of coffee is not affected by demand, but affected by supply.

The current coffee price is below the historical average coffee price from 1980 to 2015.  Top 2 coffee ETFs are following: http://etfdb.com/type/commodity/softs/coffee/

The charts for two coffee ETFs (JO and CAFE) :

https://www.quandl.com/data/EOD/JO-iPath-Bloomberg-Coffee-SubTR-ETN-JO-Stock-Prices-Dividends-and-Splits

https://www.quandl.com/data/EOD/CAFE-iPath-Pure-Beta-Coffee-ETN-CAFE-Stock-Prices-Dividends-and-Splits

 


Analysis Variable : Coffee

N

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

432

86.4481777

35.1848075

21.2617391

182.9528503