The Yield Curve in 2016 as of 2-12-2016

2016년 들어와서는 yield curve 점점 낮아지고 있습니다. 연준이 금리를 지속적으로 상승시키면 이커브는 뒤집어질것입니다. 즉 불황이 올것으로 예측되는 대표적인 지표중에 하나입니다.

The yield curve has been flattening since this year and expected to flatten further if the Fed continues to raise the interest rates. It will eventually have inverted shape when the short-term interest rates are greater than the long-term interest rates. The yield curve is one of predict indicators of recession.

 

Slide1

아래 차트를 보시면 경제가 불황이 오기전에 yield curve 가 뒤집어져서 단기국채금리가 장기국채금리보다 높았습니다. 그리고 얼마후에 공식적인 불황이 왔는데 사실 경제는 그이전에 침체로 들어갔습니다. 현재 이커브가 하락하고있습니다.

The following chart shows that the yield curves were inverted before the official recessions,  but the economy already entered the contraction phase. However, the spread between 10-year Treasury and 2-year treasury has been falling since January

FRED-3shv

Related Readings:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldcurve.asp?partner=asksa

https://econreviews.org/2015/03/23/predict-u-s-recessions-with-yield-curve/

 

 

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