Commodity Market Analysis as of 12/31/2015

 

전반적으로 작년에는 모든원자재가격은 하락했습니다. 특히 에너지 그리고 산업관련 원자재가격은 많이 하락했습니다. 가격하락원인은 한마디로 수요가 줄었다는것입니다. 그동안 중국의 원자재에대한 수요가 많이 줄어들었습니다. 물론 강한달러의 의한 원자재관련 투자가 줄고 (달러가 강해지면서 달러관련자산에대한 수요가 늘고 또한 가격이 상승합니다.

그나마 농산물관련 원자재가격의 하락은 적었습니다. (오히려 설탕와 옥수수 가격은 상승했습니다). 12월달에는 에너지만 제외한 다른부분원자재 가격은 상승했습니다 하지만 지금 상황에서는 원자재가격은 2016년에도 계속하락할것으로 보여집니다

Overall, the prices of commodities declined in 2015. The prices of energy related commodities such as oil declined 26.9% and the prices of industrial related commodities such as steel declined most at 29%. However, the prices of agriculture related commodities declined the least. (The prices of sugar and corn actually rose).

China’s declining demand for commodities has significantly impacted on the declining prices. Also, the strong dollar had some impacts on the declining of commodity prices. If the dollar appreciates, the demand for dollar related assets also increases; therefore, the value of dollar denominated assets increases.The prices of commodities expect to decline continually in 2016.







Type

N Obs

Variable Label

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

Median

N

Agriculture

15

Weekly
Monthly
Yearly
Weekly
Monthly
Yearly

0.0043333
-0.000533333
-0.0583333

0.0327341
0.0436739
0.1586189

-0.0350000
-0.0780000
-0.3550000

0.0920000
0.0600000
0.1950000

-0.0040000
-0.0030000
0.0200000

15
15
15

Energy

6

Weekly
Monthly
Yearly
Weekly
Monthly
Yearly

0.0143333
-0.0623333
-0.2691667

0.0484919
0.0758542
0.1019400

-0.0270000
-0.1570000
-0.3750000

0.1040000
0.0630000
-0.0940000

-0.0065000
-0.0590000
-0.3045000

6
6
6

Industrial

11

Weekly
Monthly
Yearly
Weekly
Monthly
Yearly

0.0080909
0.0249091
-0.2904545

0.0287070
0.0559222
0.1504722

-0.0300000
-0.0410000
-0.5710000

0.0670000
0.1460000
-0.0250000

0.0020000
0.0100000
-0.2510000

11
11
11

Livestock

4

Weekly
Monthly
Yearly
Weekly
Monthly
Yearly

0.0192500
0.0327500
-0.1295000

0.0183916
0.0496546
0.1620977

0.0050000
-0.0290000
-0.2660000

0.0460000
0.0870000
0.1040000

0.0130000
0.0365000
-0.1780000

4
4
4

Metals

4

Weekly
Monthly
Yearly
Weekly
Monthly
Yearly

-0.0095000
0.0262500
-0.2022500

0.0225167
0.0505198
0.0969721

-0.0390000
-0.0260000
-0.3070000

0.0100000
0.0720000
-0.1060000

-0.0045000
0.0295000
-0.1980000

4
4
4




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