Baltic Dry Index – as of 9/28/2015

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) (Shipping) 의 수요와공급를 측량하는 지표입니다다시 말하면 생산에 필요한 원자재를 나르는 배의 수요와공급를 나타나기에 앞으로의 경기를 미리 알아볼수있는 중요한 선행지표입니다. 지표는 선행지수로서 이지표가 상승하면 계경제가 성장하고 이지표가 하락하면 경제는 하락할것을 예측할수있습니다.

“A shipping and trade index created by the London-based Baltic Exchange that measures changes in the cost to transport raw materials such as metals, grains and fossil fuels by sea. The Baltic Exchange directly contacts shipping brokers to assess price levels for a given route, product to transport and time to delivery (speed).

Changes in the Baltic Dry Index can give investors insight into global supply and demand trends. This change is often considered a leading indicator of future economic growth (if the index is rising) or contraction (index is falling) because the goods shipped are raw, pre-production material, which is typically an area with very low levels of speculation.” (Investopedia)


2009
년 부터 이지표는 서서히 하락하고있습니다. 세계경제가 서서히 하락하고있음를 보여주고있습니다. (Global trading is shrinking.)

Source: Lloyd


Source: Lloyd


Source: Lloyd

아래 차트는 Forecasting Model  으로 예측한것입니다.

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