The US Housing Market Analysis – Part (3)

금융위기이후에 부동산시장 붕괴를 막기위해서 미정부는 처음으로 집을 사는사람들에게 First Time Home Buyer Credit (Refundable Tax Credit) 를 2008과 2009, 2010 에 주었읍니다. 이세재해택으로 잠깐 집의매매량은 증가했지만 그이후에는 매매량이 급속히 줄어들었습니다. 두번째 양적완화와 세번째 양적완화 중간에 연준이 “Operation Twist” 라는 통화정책을 시작하면서 장기금리는 급속히 하락하면서 30년 고정주택 금리도 4%미만으로 떨어지기 시작해서 결국에는 3% 가까히 하락하면서 다시 부동산 시장은 회복하기 시작했습니다.  하지만 2013년 버냉키연준의장이 양적완화의 출구전략의사를 비추면서 다시 장기금리는 오르기시작하면서 부동산 매매도 주춤해졌습니다. 그러자 다시 연준이 2014년까지 양적완화를 연장하겠다고 하고 또  세계경제가 안좋아지지면서 다시 미국 장기국채의 수요가 늘고 장기금리가 하락하면서 주택매매는 늘어나기시작했습니다.  

현재는 30년 고정금리는 4% 수준인데 연준이 금리을 올해안으로 0.25% 인상하면 10년짜리 미국 국채금리와 30년 주택금리는 0.18% 에서 0.2% 정도 상승할것으로 예상되면서 주택매매도 조금 줄어들것으로 예상됩니다,  

새집공급은 금융위기이후에 급속히 줄어들다가 다시 늘어나기 시작했지만 아직도 평균공급량에는 못미치고있습니다.  또한 기존주택 공급량도 늘어나기는 했어도 평균치에는 조금 못미치고 있습니다. 

현재 집을 금융위기때 집을 일어버리고 랜트하는 사람들이 늘고  집소유자들은 줄기 시작하면서 잠재적으로  집에대한 수요가 늘기 시작할수있습니다, 그런대 현재 랜트 비용이 전체소득에 32% 까지 오르면서 집에대한 수요가 늘어나고있습니다. 

무엇보다도 한때 미국 정부의 주택소유률을 늘리려는 정책이결국에는 무리한 대출을 하게되고 이것이 위험한 대출이 되어서 부동산 가격을 급등시켰다가 다시 집값하락으로 결국에는 금융위기를 초래하고 주택소유률은 최고 69% (2005) 까지 상승했다가 결국에는 다시 64% (1995) 까지 하락했습니다.   
After the recession, the existing home sales shortly increased in 2009 and 2010 due to the first time home buyer credit ($6,500 in 2008 and $8,000 in 2009 and 2010). After the first time home buyer credit was expired, the home sales declined significantly until 2012 when the Fed began to deploy “Operation Twist” which bought long term treasury bonds and sold the short term treasury bonds. This operation eventually pushed the yields of long-term treasury bond lower and the mortgage rate lower. The 30 year fixed mortgage rate began to fall below 4% and eventually fell to near 3% in 2012, then the housing sales started to increase. The home sales were hit by higher mortgage rate which was triggered by the Q.E. taper tantrum in 2013. However, the home sales have been increasing again because the mortgage rate fell under 4% since 2014.년

 The following chart displays the relationship between the 30-year fixed rate and the 10-year treasury rate. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is tied to the 10-year treasury rate and the average spread between two rates is 1.7%. The Fed expects to raise the fed fund rate by 0.25% before the end of this year which would impact the 10-year treasury rate by approximately 0.2%. So, the 30-year fixed rate is expected to rise by 0.2%. 

The number of new homes declined substantially during the great recession, and though they have been gradually increasing again, they are still below the historical average (1,445,000). 

The following chart displays the monthly supply of houses in the United States and it increased during the great recession because many houses went to the foreclosures and were sold as “short sale” which were sold less than loan amounts. However, the supply declined substantially because many home owners were not able to sell the houses, but the supply began to rise again since 2013 though it is still under the historical average (6.1).

 The following chart shows the renters and owners: the number of owners had been increasing until the great recession and it has been gradually falling. Many home owners lost their homes because they lost their jobs and were not able to buy the houses again. Also, the number of renters had been stable, but began to rise quickly because many former home owners lost their homes and started to rent the houses. The second chart shows the home ownership rate for the United States which had been very flat until 1995 when it began to rise quickly before the financial crisis. It has been sharply falling again and it currently reaches to 64%  (1995). 

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