The relationship between GDP growth and Stock Market

보통 우리는 경제성장률이 높으면 주식시장도 함께 높게 상승할것으로 알고있습니다. 또 경제성장률이 낮으면 주식시장의 상승도 낮을것으로 예측합니다. 하지만 두지표의 관계지수 (Correlation Coefficient) 는 거의 0 에 가깝습니다. 상당히 약한것이죠. 거의 연관성이 없다고 보시면 됩니다. 그리고  R-square 도 0 에 가깝습니다.

아래차트는 명목 경제성장률 과 주식시장의수익률 을 비교한것입니다. (1963-2014)

We assume that the relationship between the growth rate of GDP and the performance of the stock market is highly positively correlated. When the growth rate of GDP is high, the performance of the stock market is expected be high also. When the growth rate of GDP is low, then the performance of the stock market is assumed to be low. Frankly, the relationship between the two variables is very negligible. The correlation coefficient is close to 0 and the R-square is also near 0. The following chart shows the relationship between the U.S. nominal GDP growth rates and annual returns of the stock market (S&P 500) from 1963 to 2014.



아래차트는 여러나라의 경제성장률과 주식시장의 수익률과의 관계를 보여줍니다. 두지표의관계성은 거의 보이지않습니다. The following chart displays the weak relationships between equity markets and nominal GDP growth rates of several countries. (Source: The Times of India, Prashant Jain CIO of HDFC Mutual Fund).

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