Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)-All items except Food and Energy and Consumer Price Index -All items excluding Food and Energy)

연준이 금리을 올리는기준이 실업율이 Non-Accelerating Inflation of unemployment rate(NAIRU) 까지 내려가고 또 인플레이션이 2% 이 될때 금리를 인상하겠다고 합니다, 연준이 보는 인플레이션은 Core-Consumer Price Index(CPI) 가 아니고  Core-Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) 입니다. 여기 지난 매년이두지수의 연상승률을 보시면 Core-CPI 는 2011년를 제외하고 2007년 이후로 2% 을 이상오른적이 없습니다. 하지만 현재 이지수가 0.8% (4/2015 기준) 으로 올해는 2% 를 달성하것으로 보입니다. 하지만 연준이 보는 지표는 Core-PCE 로 2008년 이후로 한번도 2% 으로 상승한적이없습니다. 그나만 2011년 1.95% 로 2% 에 가까히 접근이후에 계속 하락했습니다. 현재 0.46% (4/2015 기준) 으로 올해 예상치는 1.5% 내외로 보여집니다.혹 만약 이지표가 더오른다하더란도 2% 까지는 가지는 않을것 같습니다. 

그러면 연준이 약속처럼 2% 되어야 금리를 올리겠다는 약속은 지키기 힘들도 모르겠습니다. 그럼 연준이 시장에 보내는 금리인상의 시그널은 사실 그동안 너무빠르게 상승한 증시의버블이 염려되어서 이버블이 더커지기않게하기위한 연준의 심리 경제정책으로도 볼수있습니다.

The Fed will raise the fed fund rate when the unemployment rate hitsthe natural rate of unemployment (NARU) and the inflation rate rises to 2%. Here are two graphs for the Consumer Price Index for all items less Food & Energy (Core CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures for All items less Food & Energy (Core PCE). 
The annual percent changes of Core CPI have never achieved 2% since 2008 except 2011 when it rose above 2%. As of April, 2015, the annualized growth rate of Core CPI is 0.8% so that it is expected to rise to 2% in 2015.  
However, the Fed gazesat the Core PCE instead of the Core CPI to decide to raise the rate. The annual percent change of the Core PCE has never achieved 2% except in 2011 when it rose to nearly 2%. As of 4/2015, the annualized growth rate of the Core PCE is 0.46%, so it is expected to rise to near 1.5% in 2015.
Therefore, it would be difficult for the Fed to raise the rate if the Core PCE does not rise to 2% as its promise. The Fed has been sending strong signal to the Market that it would raise the rate this year. Iassume that the Fed worries about the bubble in the stock market, so the Fed tries to prevent the rapid growing of bubble in the stock market by implementing psychological tactics. 
The following chart shows the annual percent change of the CPI-Core which is expected to rise above 2 % in 2015.  
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food & Energy
CPI-Core (All items except food and energy)

 The PCE is expected to rise to 1.5% in 2015.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) as of 4/1/2015
PCE-Core (except food and energy)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s