The U.S. Labor market affects the U.S. Housing start

현재 새집 수요가 늘어나는 이유가 결국 임금상승률 과 낮은 실업률에 의해서입니다.  새집에대한수요는 결국 노동시장의 안정에의해서 정해집니다직장이 불안하면 사람들은 집사는것을 꺼려합니다. 요근래 새집짓는 회사의주식들이 상승하기시작했습니다.

아래차트는 전년대비 임금상승률인데,   1980년이후로 지속적으로 임금증가 속도는 줄어들고 있어다가 금융위기이후로는 서서히 임금상승률이 높아지고있습니다.  그이유는 인플레이션도 줄어들기도 했지만 세계화로인해서 많은 일자리가 외국으로 옮겨졌습니다그런데 금융위기이후는 증가률이 다시상승하기시작하여 , 2015년도에는 그증가률이 빨리상승하기 시작했습니다.   
The recent recovery of the housing market is propelled by the historically low mortgage interest rate, but it is also due to improvements in the labor market. When people realize the increase in compensation and improvement of labor market, they want to purchase new houses.  The current improvement of new housing start is due to the improvement in the labor market such as increasing of compensation of employees and decreasing of unemployment rate.

The following chart displays the percent changes from previous years. The growth rates of employees’ compensation had been gradually declining from 1980 to 2007 due to lower inflation rates and globalization. After sharp decline during the great recession, the compensation of employees has been growing again.


아래차트를 보시면 두변수 (임금인상률과 새집숫자) 같은움직임을 보여주고있습니다.
The movements of the two variables are coincidence.


임금증가률과 새집건축숫자는 연관지수가 0.48 인데 사람들은 임금이증가하면서 새집에대한 수요가늘어납니다임금증가는 또한 인플레이션으로 이어지기에 집에대한 수요도 함께늘어납니다.


The following chart displays a positive correlation relationship between compensation of employees and housing start.

금융위기로 실업율은 10% 가까히 치솟아올랐습니다그후 서서히 낮아져서 얼마전에는 5.5% 가까히 하락하면서 노동시장은 안정를 찾아가고 서서히 새집에 대한 수요가늘어나고 있습니다. 2007 이후에 거의 7-8년동안 새집이지어진것이 많지않아서 지속적으로 새집에대한 수요가 늘어날것으로 전망됩니다.
The unemployment rose to near 10% due to the financial crisis, but it has been declining to 5.5%. The housing start gradually began to rise. The movements of the two variables are opposite. So, when unemployment rate declines, the housing start rises.

여기 두변수의연관지수는 -0.4  즉실업율의 하락은 새집에대한수요가 상승함를 보여줍니다.
The following chart shows that the relationship between unemployment rate and housing start is negatively correlated.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s