The Chicago Board Options Exchange(CBOE) Volatility Index- VIX

주식시장(S&P 500)를 볼때 주의깊게 볼 지수가 시카고옵션보드에서 발표하는 변동지수 혹은 공포지수(VIX)입니다. 이지수는 앞으로 30일 변동를 나타내는데 보통 투자자들의 주식시장에대한 공포를 숫자화한 지수입니다.  투자자들이 주식시장이 폭락할것이라고 예상되면 이지수가 삽시간에 오릅니다. 실지로 2007, 2008년에 이지수가 사상최고로 치솟았습니다.  

현재 이지수는 상당히 낮은상태입니다. 일단 저의견해로는 폭풍전야의 고요함으로도 볼수있습니다. 바다에는 항상 파도가있는것처럼 이지수가 아주낮은것은 사실 좋기만한것이아닙니다. 고요한 바다에 갑자기 바람이 불고 파도가 높아질수있습니다.  차트에 보시면 오랜기간 낮은 상태에 있다가 이지수가 상승했습니다.  그리고 평균적으로 이지수는 8월, 9월, 10월에 상승합니다. 

2분기 미국경제성장률과 (7월에 발표)  또 가을에 연준이 금리를 올리는것이 결정되면 주식시장의 향방이 결정될듯합니다. 
  
The Chicago Board Options Exchange(CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is  also called the “Fear Index” which measures the fears of investors in the stock market (S&P 500)   So, when investors fear that the market would crash, then the index rises high (like 2007 and 2008).
However, the latest volatile index is very low which is perceived as the calm before the storm.  As you can see below, in history, the index had been very low before the index rose substantially.
I advise you to watch out for the months of August, September, and October because the historical averages of index from late summer to fall (August, September and October) are very high, which implies that the summer is not good time to invest.  The GDP figure of second quarter will be released in July, and the Fed will decide whether to raise the fed fund rate in September. Therefore, it is better to wait until the GDP of the second quarter is released and the decision of Fed to raise the fed fund rate.
The following chart illustrates the historical data of CBOE Volatility Index from 1990.

  

The following chart displays the annual changes of CBOPE volatility Index from previous year.

 The following chart shows the average monthly changes and the chart shows that the summer is very volatile (risky).

The following chart shows when the Volatility index rose, then the stock market declined.

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