M1=Monetary Base x M1 Multiplier
금융위기이후 연준이 양적완화를 시행하면서 세차래에 걸쳐서 본원통화량(Monetary Base)를 세배이상늘렸을때 많은사람들은 인플레이션을 걱정했습니다. 본원통화량를 자그만치 $800 billion 에서 $4 trillion 까지늘렸기때문입니다. 그런데 인플레이션은 보이지않고있습니다. 그러면 그많은 통화가 어떻게되었습니까? 그이유는 통화량지수(M1 Multiplier)가 낮아졌기때문입니다. 아래 차트를 보시면2008년전에는 M1통화량이 항상 본원통화량 (Monetary Base)보다 많았습니다. 그런데 금융위기이후에는 상황이 반대로 변해서 M1통화량이 오히려 본원통화량보다 적습니다.
After the financial crisis in 2007-08, the Federal Reserve executed quantitative easing (QE) for three times which enormously increased the monetary base by four times from $800 billion to $4 trillion. Many people began to worry about the inflation or stagflation because of enormous increases in monetary base, but the sign of inflation has not been seen. One of the reasons that the sign of inflation has not been seen is due to the sharp decline of the M1 multiplier.
The following chart illustrates the historical money supply (M1) and monetary base. Before the financial crisis, the M1 had been always more than the monetary base. But, when the monetary base was sharply increased by the Federal Reserve, the M1 supply did not increase as much as the monetary base. As of 4/2015, the money supply (M1) is approximately $3 trillion, which is less than the monetary base ($4 trillion). M1 measures the most liquid components of the money supply, as it contains cash and assets that can quickly be converted to currency.
이것를 보여주는것이 통화량지수(M1 Multiplier)인데 금융위기전에는 한때 M1 Multiplier 가 2.8 있다가 1.6까지 서서히 하락했습니다. 그러다 통화량자수가금융위때 1 미만으로 하락 결국 현재는0.73 정도에 머물고있습니다.
The next chart shows that the historical M1 multiplier which has been declining gradually before the financial crisis in 2007-08. It sharply fell below 1, and the current M1 multiplier is staying at 0.73.