Japanese Real Interest Rate

어떻게 금리가 마이너스가될수있을까요? 일본국채의명목금리는  0.3% 내외입니다. 그리고 일본물가상승률은2.3% 입니다.  그러면 실제금리는-2.0%  입니다.  역사적으로 실제금리가 마이너스일때가 여러번있었습니다.  1970년대 오일위기로 인플레이션이 급등했을때 실제금리가 마이너스로 떨어질때가있었씁니다. 그리고  현재 유로존 국가들의 국채 금리는 마이너스입니다. 일본경우 1980년이후 지금현재를 제외한 총두번있었습니다. 아시아외환위때인1997년도  1년동안 (3/1997-3/1998) 그리고2008  6개월동안 (6/200-10/2008)금융위기때 입니다. 이때의공통점은 세계경제가 위기로 안전자산으로 지본이몰릴때 일본국채의 실제금리가 마이너스로 내려갔습니다.

일본은행이 양적완화로 계속적으로 일본국채를 계속매입하고있어서일본국채금리는 거의 2년가까히 마이너스금리을 유지하고 있습니다(이후 6/2013- 지금)   그런데 언제까지 이것이 가능할지는 모르겠습니다. 아베수상이 집권하는 2018년까지는 계속해서 일본은행이 국채를 매입할것인데 그전에 일본국채가 폭락할수있습니다.  

Can the real interest rate be negative? The answer is “Yes”. The current nominal yield of 10 year Japanese government bonds is 0.3%, and the inflation rate is 2.3%; therefore, the real interest rate of 10 year Japanese government bonds would be – 2.0%. There were several occasions when the real interest rates were negative. One example would be the unexpected high inflations caused by two oil shocks in the 1970s pushed the real interest rates to fall below zero percent.  After 1980, the real interest rate of Japanese government bonds fell negative for 12 months during the Asian currency crisis from 3/1997 to 3/1998. During the financial crisis in 2008, the real interest rates of Japanese government bonds fell negative for four months from 6/2008 to 10/2008. The Japanese government bonds were considered to be one of safest investments during the crisis by investors in the world. 


Since 2013, the Bank of Japan has been purchasing the Japanese government bonds, and since then, the nominal yield of Japanese government began to fall, and it is now staying around 0.3%. The inflation rate has been gradually rising to above 2%.  It has been almost two years since the real interest rates have been negative, and it is very difficult to predict how long it would stay negative. It can be assumed that the bank of Japan will continue to buy Japanese government bonds until 2018, or as long as Mr.Abe stays as Japanese Prime Minister. Sooner or later, the Japanese government bonds will collapse, which will cause another financial crisis.

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