Oil Price and Expected Inflation Rate (5-Year Breakeven Inflation)

아래 차트는 현재 오일가격 (WTI) 과 5년예상 물가지수 (5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate) 를 비교한것입니다.  오일가격이 하락하면 기대치 물가지수는 함께하락합니다. 작년 7월부터 오일가격이 하락하면서 기대물가지수가 2.0% (7/2014) 에서 1.05% (1/2015) 까지 하락했습니다. 오일가격도  $45 까지 하락했습니다. 요근래 오일가격이 상승하면서 이 기대치 물가지수가 다시 상승하여 현재 1.6% 까지 상승했습니다. 작년 11월7일에 기대치물가지수가 1.6% 이었는데 이때오일가격이 $78.7 이었습니다. 그런데 현재 오일가격은 $56.4 입니다. 거의 $20의차이가 납니다. 그이유는 오일가격이 계속상승할것이라고 보는 투자자들이 있다는것입니다. 그래서 기대치물가지수가 먼저 오일가격보다 상승했다는 것입니다. 

여기서 우리는 두가지를 예측할수있습니다. 

  1. 하나는 오일가격이 $78 까지 상승할것이라는 예측입니다.
  2. 오일가격의 상승은 곧 소비자물가지수의 상승 곧 연준의 금리인상를 미리 예측할수있습니다.

The following chart exhibits the very strong relationship between oil prices and expected inflation rates (5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate). When the oil price declines, then the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate also declines as well and vice versa. When the price of oil declined sharply from $107 in July 2014 to $45 in January 2015, the 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate fell to 1.05% in January 2015. Recently, when the price of oil rose to $56, the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate rose higher to 1.6%. The last time the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate was 1.6% was last November 2014 and the price of oil was $78.7. The difference between last year’s oil price and current oil price is approximately $20, and the reason why the 5-year inflation rate has been rising higher than the oil price is that some investors perceive the increase in oil price to be persistent or permanent.  Two things we can expect from this:
1. the price of oil climbing back to $78
2. the increase of oil price would increase the inflation which would induce the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate.

raise the interest rate.

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