Korean Stock Market and Long-Term Korean Bond Yields (10-Year)

보통주식시장과 국채금리는 반대로 움직입니다이두지수의 연관지수는 -0.63 입니다이자률이 떨어지면 주식시장은 상승합니다. 아래차트를 보시면 한국증시와 한국정부채권과의 관계을 보면 이두지수가 반대로 움직이는것을 알수있습니다. 하지만 지난2년간동안 한국국채의금리가  3.653% (12/2013) 에서 2.346% (2/2015) 대폭하락했는데도 불구하고 한국증시는 오히려 조금 하락했습니다지금금리로 볼때 현재증시는10% 저평가 되어있습니다. 그리고 현재 경제상황에서는 한국국채의금리는 더하락할수있있습니다, 그러면  한국증시는 올해 10% 이상 상승할수있다고 보여집니다.

The following chart displays the high negative relationship between the Korean stock market and long-term Korean government bond yields (10 –year). The correlation coefficient is -0.63. When the interest rates decreased, the Korean stock market increased and vice versa. However, this relationship did not hold in the last two years. During this period, the Korean stock market has been stagnating while the long-term Korean government bond yields have been falling more than 100 points from 3.653% (12/2013) to 2.346(2/2015).  As of 2/2015, the Korean stock market was estimated 10% below than the predicted value. Under the current economic situation, the long-term Korean government bond yields could fall further which would boost the Korean stock market higher.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s