Korean Stock Market and Long-Term Korean Bond Yields (10-Year)

보통주식시장과 국채금리는 반대로 움직입니다이두지수의 연관지수는 -0.63 입니다이자률이 떨어지면 주식시장은 상승합니다. 아래차트를 보시면 한국증시와 한국정부채권과의 관계을 보면 이두지수가 반대로 움직이는것을 알수있습니다. 하지만 지난2년간동안 한국국채의금리가  3.653% (12/2013) 에서 2.346% (2/2015) 대폭하락했는데도 불구하고 한국증시는 오히려 조금 하락했습니다지금금리로 볼때 현재증시는10% 저평가 되어있습니다. 그리고 현재 경제상황에서는 한국국채의금리는 더하락할수있있습니다, 그러면  한국증시는 올해 10% 이상 상승할수있다고 보여집니다.

The following chart displays the high negative relationship between the Korean stock market and long-term Korean government bond yields (10 –year). The correlation coefficient is -0.63. When the interest rates decreased, the Korean stock market increased and vice versa. However, this relationship did not hold in the last two years. During this period, the Korean stock market has been stagnating while the long-term Korean government bond yields have been falling more than 100 points from 3.653% (12/2013) to 2.346(2/2015).  As of 2/2015, the Korean stock market was estimated 10% below than the predicted value. Under the current economic situation, the long-term Korean government bond yields could fall further which would boost the Korean stock market higher.

Korean Stock Market vs. Korean Exports

여기 한국증시와 한국수출과의연관성을 보면 놀랄정도록 높습니다. 연관지수가(Correlation Coefficient) 0.93 으로 거의 절대적 관계성를 보여줍니다. 그런데 지난 2년동안 한국의증시는 한국의수출이 늘어나는것만큼 늘어나지 못하고있습니다. 저의분석으로는 1/2015 기준 10% 정도 저평가받고있습니다 .  그런데 현재 일본의엔저로 한국의수출은 계속 줄어들고있습니다. 물론 수입이 더줄어 한국의경상수지는 흑자입니다. 그래서 단기적으로 증시가 상승하더라도 수출이 늘어나지않으면 한국증시는 장기적으로는 지속적인 상승이 어려울수도있습니다.
The following chart illustrates the very strong positive relationship between the Korean stock market and Korean exports. The two variables had been moving together since 2005, but in the last two years, they had diverged, with the growth rates of Korean stock market being lower than the growth rates of Korean exports.
The correlation coefficient of these two variables are very high (0.93), an almost perfect correlation. The simple regression model estimates that the current Korean stock market is 10% undervalued as of 1/2015. Korean exports have been shrinking due to fierce competition from Japan while Korean trading surplus has been increasing due to more decreasing of Korean imports than exports.