Decision Tree Analysis of Greece’s departure of Eurozone

현재 ECB and IMF Greece 의요구를 들어주지않을것 같습니다. 그래서 그리스의상태를 Decision Tree 라는 곳에 한번 맞추어 분석해 보았습니다.
현재 상황에서 결국 지금 ECB and IMF 그리스의 요구를 들어줘도 나중에 다시 와서 더많은 요구를 할것으로 보고 현재 ECB and IMF 요구을 들어주지않는 쪽으로 나아갈것갔습니다.
가장좋은 결과는 그리스의 요구를 들어주고 그리스가 개혁을 하는것인데 그렇 확률이 적다고 보는것이죠. 결국 요구를 들어주지 않고 그리스가 EU 남고 구조적개혁을 하는쪽으로 갈것 같습니다. 만약 그리스가 탈퇴해도 그영향를 적게하기위해서 ECB 이미 양적완화 (미리 보험을 들어둠) 하고있기에 그충격이 덜할것으로 ECB IMF 보고있습니다.
급하게 차트를 만들었습니다. 여기서 High and Low Probability 입니다. 그리고 만약 결과에 대한 숫자를 집어느면 좀더 나은 Decision Tree Analysis 가될수있습니다.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not accepting the Greece’s proposed overhaul of its bailout.  The possibility of Greece’s exit from the Eurozone can be applied to the Decision Tree Analysis to analyze the expected outcomes.

The ECB and IMF foresee that Greece would fail the structure reform and request for more bailouts in future although they accept its suggestion. For that reason, they would not take the path which Greece would like to pursue. The best outcome for both would be the ECB and IMF accepting Greece’s proposal and Greece successfully implementing the structure reform as its promise.
Nevertheless, the ECB and IMF perceive that the success of Greece’s structure reform is very minimal if the bailout is approved. Also, they perceive that the probability of Greece’s departure from the Eurozone is low. They predict the effects of Greece leaving the Eurozone would be manageable. The ECB’s Quantitative Easing, which began last month, is a kind of safeguard plan in case Greece exits from the Eurozone.  

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s